Biggest Weak Spot for All 7 2-0 Teams

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Rubber Soul
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Wed Sep 19, 2018 8:54 am

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300000 ... ch-20-team
By Cynthia Frelund
NFL Network Analytics Expert

Los Angeles Rams

Where improvement is needed: Jared Goff's performance when under pressure from the defense.

Calculating my model's win percentages ahead of both Rams matchups projected overwhelming victories (well over 75 percent) in favor of the Rams in both games this season, by far the highest for any team. My models use metrics that are proven to be related to wins in the past and include things like personnel matchups, coaching tendencies and play trends -- the more they are fed with recent data, the better they perform. The tricky part about lopsided wins (33-13 over the Raiders in Week 1 and 34-0 over the Cardinals in Week 2 ... and Arizona has the fewest pressures in the league) is that strategy can be masked.

There are a lot of strong positive indicators for the Rams overall, but one situation to monitor is how Goff's passing production changes under pressure. So far this season, he has a 28.6 passer rating under pressure versus a 117.6 passer rating when not under pressure (last season: 61.6 vs 110.1). Think of -20 as how much the rating for top 10 QBs changes on the routes Goff has been targeting. Three of the Rams' next four opponents (Chargers, Vikings and Broncos) have upper-end ability to get in the face of opposing quarterbacks and should reveal how Sean McVay is going to evolve when it comes to play-calling and using Goff this season. Relying on Todd Gurley to overcome pressures is efficient ... until it is not. Relying on Gurley and being able to make plays via the pass under pressure would project the Rams into the playoffs and beyond with this defense.



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Jack85Youngblood
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Wed Sep 19, 2018 9:54 am

I sense "grasping at straws" to find a weakness here.


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NorCal RF
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Wed Sep 19, 2018 10:02 am

Jack85Youngblood wrote:
Wed Sep 19, 2018 9:54 am
I sense "grasping at straws" to find a weakness here.
This^.

I'll take the word of Steve Young who states the Ram's have no weaknesses over someone I've never heard of.



Raminec
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Wed Sep 19, 2018 10:32 am

I think it’s a fair assessment. Dealing with rush pressure is one of the most difficult things for any QB. Goff has improved but still has work to do. The Rams O Line has been very good but they will be stepping up a weight class in the next few weeks. I think both Goff and the O Line have shown improved play from week 1 and are starting to round into form. With no work in the preseason it’s hard to simulate actual live fire in practice. The past few weeks have helped prepare them for the challenges ahead. The Chargers even without Bosa can get to the QB and the Vikings are among the best in the league at disguising coverage and blitz packages. These next two weeks will be a good barometer for the Rams success.



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SoCalRam78
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Wed Sep 19, 2018 10:58 am

Always trying to get after Goff

How did future media HOF inductee RW look like Monday under pressure?

Oh yeah, like shit.


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malibu
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Wed Sep 19, 2018 2:33 pm

The difference between last year is several things. The biggest thing is Jared's command of the plays and LOS. Last year he was trying to check out of plays at the last seconds now he gets what the opponent is going to do sooner and makes easy adjustments

Also confidence if knowing the Rams can beat everyone.

This year he is going up against a front four that is the best in the game and same can be said for the back 5. Meaning he needs pinpoint accuracy and he must place alot of value on his internal clock management to succeed. Playing this caliber of talent forcesJared to improve his game overall.

Like I have said by the time this guy is done playing football he will have a gold jacket. He is a winner and has that it factor like Brady IMO.



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NN1Badboy
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Wed Sep 19, 2018 2:59 pm

If we have a weakness I think it’s our TE’s. Based on the statement above, Gurley is Goff’s only outlet. I think if we had a dependable tight end, and we might in Everett, then that would just solidify us as the team to beat. Just my thoughts.....



toast49
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Wed Sep 19, 2018 3:05 pm

NN1Badboy wrote:
Wed Sep 19, 2018 2:59 pm
If we have a weakness I think it’s our TE’s. Based on the statement above, Gurley is Goff’s only outlet. I think if we had a dependable tight end, and we might in Everett, then that would just solidify us as the team to beat. Just my thoughts.....
I really think our TE position is a strength, especially Higbee. He's very important to the Rams 11 personnel zone run scheme.



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Dick84
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Wed Sep 19, 2018 3:45 pm

I don't have a problem with the analysis.... other than it's of such a small sample size.
I mean.. how many times has he been "pressured"? And he threw his only pic "under pressure".. so that's gonna skew it.

We'll see.


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RadRacerRams
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Wed Sep 19, 2018 6:57 pm

Raminec wrote:
Wed Sep 19, 2018 10:32 am
I think it’s a fair assessment. Dealing with rush pressure is one of the most difficult things for any QB. Goff has improved but still has work to do. The Rams O Line has been very good but they will be stepping up a weight class in the next few weeks. I think both Goff and the O Line have shown improved play from week 1 and are starting to round into form. With no work in the preseason it’s hard to simulate actual live fire in practice. The past few weeks have helped prepare them for the challenges ahead. The Chargers even without Bosa can get to the QB and the Vikings are among the best in the league at disguising coverage and blitz packages. These next two weeks will be a good barometer for the Rams success.
Hey the Vikings defense really held down the GB Packers only giving up 29 points to a gimpy Aaron Rodgers........!!!

Go RAMS : This Rams team is built to WIN 8-) nothing less....... :!:



Rammer
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Thu Sep 20, 2018 7:27 am

NN1Badboy wrote:
Wed Sep 19, 2018 2:59 pm
If we have a weakness I think it’s our TE’s. Based on the statement above, Gurley is Goff’s only outlet. I think if we had a dependable tight end, and we might in Everett, then that would just solidify us as the team to beat. Just my thoughts.....
I agree and I think it directly corresponds to Goff's relatively weak passing numbers while under pressure. It looks to me like he is cool and does a really good job of buying some extra time. But it seems like he has no open te to dump off too. Or maybe he does and is not seeing it or comfortable going there.

My opinion--- Thinking you have no weaknesses is just the wrong way to look at it. First, it just isn't true, every team does. Our's is TE, backup qb, maybe lb's and overall depth. Second, You always have the mindset that you have to keep getting better. Once you start thinking you are set, you start declining. That's why super bowl teams are rarely as good the next year.



NorCal RF
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Thu Sep 20, 2018 8:14 am

Same "expert" who I hear says she is not a big fan of McVay's and the Ram's don't have an identity on offense. That McVay only called 4 plays in the second half against AZ.

I think it's safe to say we can move on from her.



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Safety Blitz
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Thu Sep 20, 2018 9:55 am

Things We can Get Better at:

1) Tight End Receptions
2) Rushing Yards Per Attempt
3) Red Zone Efficiency
4) Covering TEs
5) Clock Management
6) Goff's Decision Making: Throw it away to live another day (e.g. interception of pass thrown into end zone--Peterson pick).
7) Winning Coin Flips


"In McVay We Trust!"

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Dick84
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Thu Sep 20, 2018 11:41 am

Safety Blitz wrote:
Thu Sep 20, 2018 9:55 am
Things We can Get Better at:

1) Tight End Receptions
2) Rushing Yards Per Attempt
3) Red Zone Efficiency
4) Covering TEs
5) Clock Management
6) Goff's Decision Making: Throw it away to live another day (e.g. interception of pass thrown into end zone--Peterson pick).
7) Winning Coin Flips
Clock management?

I chalk up the Goff int to game situation. With GZ, he doesn’t force that throw.


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harkin
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Thu Sep 20, 2018 3:39 pm

I don’t have any problem with it. Every QB has trouble with pressure and Goff still is working on the best way to go when the pocket collapses.

The key for Goff is using Gurley enough to keep the DBs honest and the O-Line to keep playing very well.



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